Where will the
clearing price land.
8,000 zkSNARKS. One clearing price. Nobody can see the bids —
so we simulate thousands of possible auctions instead.
Choose a mode.
Average number of NFTs each person bids for.
Half of bids are below this, half above.
You pay the clearing price, not your bid. Shared with the My bid tab.
NOTHING RUNS UNTIL YOU PRESS CALCULATE
Average number of NFTs each person bids for.
Typical: half of bids are below this, half above. Highest: the biggest whale's bid.
Low = everyone bids similar. High = some whales, some minimum bids.
Nobody knows the real numbers. More uncertainty = wider range of outcomes.
NOTHING RUNS UNTIL YOU PRESS CALCULATE
Set your assumptions, then press Calculate.
LOCAL COMPUTE · DETERMINISTIC SEED · NO BID DATA SENT
CLEARING PRICE DISTRIBUTION
TOTAL DEMAND vs SUPPLY
UNITS REQUESTED / AUCTIONWIN CHANCE BY BID
PROBABILITY OF A FULL FILLCheck your odds.
Your odds are read from the last simulated auctions.
CLEARING PRICE vs YOUR BID
You pay the clearing price, not your bid. Bid your true maximum.
Win = your whole quantity is filled. Your odds are read instantly from the stored runs of the last simulation; if the clearing price lands exactly on your bid, you are placed at a random spot in the deposit queue at that price.
root@snarkodds:~$ ./how-it-works
01Random auctions
Each run draws its own world: how many people bid, how much they typically bid, how many NFTs they want and how many bid pages were actually paid. Your certainty setting decides how far each run may drift from your numbers. Most people want a few NFTs, some want many; every bid is capped at 50 units and 0.001 ZEC price resolution.
02One clearing price
Bids are sorted from highest to lowest. The bid containing the 8,000th unit sets the price paid by every winner. A share of bids is snapped to round numbers, so many bids pile up on the same price; equal prices are ordered by deposit time, and a bid at the clearing price can be filled only partially.
03Your odds
Every run is stored, so your win chance is the share of runs your bid clears — counting partial fills when your bid ties the clearing price. Changing your bid re-reads those stored runs instantly instead of simulating again. If total demand stays below 8,000 units, the clearing price is the lowest allowed bid. P10–P90 covers the middle 80% of simulated prices.